Joachim Klement, an economist and mathematician who became famous for correctly predicting the last three world champions, has once again sparked debate with his new forecast for the 2026 World Cup.
He is an analyst who in the past anticipated the titles of Germany in 2014, France in 2018, and Argentina in 2022, which turned his statistical model into one of the most talked-about both inside and outside football.
Now, with the tournament in the United States, Mexico, and Canada approaching, the specialist once again applied his mathematical system to project a new champion… and his conclusion left no one indifferent.
According to his model, the prediction once again points to a European national team, which has surprised fans and experts who follow his analyses closely every four years.
The author of the study himself acknowledged that even he was stunned by the result. “I was horrified”, he said when referring to the consistency—or the unexpected nature—of his system’s projection.
The model takes into account variables such as historical performance, population, GDP per capita, the FIFA ranking, and even climate factors, which has allowed it to maintain a surprisingly high success rate in recent tournaments.
But who would the winner be now? The Netherlands.
These are the highlights of his predictions:
The Netherlands will win the 2026 World Cup by defeating Portugal in the final.
The Dutch will knock out Spain in the semifinals, France in the quarterfinals, Canada in the round of 16, and Morocco in the round of 32.
Mexico will be eliminated in the round of 32 after advancing as the third-place team in Group A.
Japan eliminates Brazil in that same round of 32.
Portugal will eliminate Argentina in the quarterfinals.
The mathematician himself insists that this is not an infallible prediction, but rather a statistical exercise with a margin of error, especially in a tournament as unpredictable as a World Cup.
Even so, every time he publishes a new result, the debate flares up again: can mathematics predict the world champion?